Palm Beach Post

Richard Newquist Realtor
Live At The Beach.net

Here's an article that takes a slightly different approach to explaining Florida Real Estate:

By Linda Rawls
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Monday, May 14, 2007
Who's going to blink first?
The region's once-sizzling housing market - which for nearly five years lured investors with double-digit gains, easy credit and 40-year-low interest rates - has simmered to a showdown.
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Indeed, some market watchers believe home prices are the object of a high-stakes tug of war between home buyers in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast armed with low interest rates, and home sellers who refuse to budge from boom-time home prices despite rising inventory, surging foreclosures and tightened credit standards.

"Even to this day we still have stubborn sellers who aren't being realistic," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter. "Some won't accept that the market has changed, and lower their prices." The result has been a painful slowdown with a ripple effect that has even local retailers crying foul as they see their sales dip. As the song says, "Something's gotta give," and experts are betting that sellers will blink first.

And when they do, they'll see a buyer's market.
Meanwhile, Palm Beach County teacher Stephen Luzinski wonders why prices have not already come down more.

"I am still waiting for prices to fall," said Luzinski, who's looking to buy his first home.
"I am out in this housing market almost every single day, but there does not seem to be a whole lot of budging by the owners," he said, eyes wide open. "It seems that most sellers are still looking to double, triple or quadruple what they paid for their house."

Flood of foreclosures
Such seller attitudes are unlikely to last, according to real estate forecasters. Primarily because there are just too many homes on the market. Nationwide, the number of vacant unsold units in the first quarter of this year set a record, the U.S. Commerce Department said recently, continuing a sharp upward trend that started last year.

David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, puts the number at an "excess of about 1.4 million." Swelling inventory caused the National Association of Realtors to create a mini-stir last week when it revised its forecast to predict that existing-home prices would fall this year for the first time since the Great Depression. The 1 percent predicted drop - to $219,800 - is not as earth-shaking as it sounds, given that home prices in 38 of the 50 states declined in 2006, local real estate consultant Jack McCabe said.

Local home prices already have started their downward march, Realtors say, though they're not moving as fast as some would like.
The median price of an existing single-family home in Palm Beach County fell from $388,000 in January to $375,100 in March. In the Treasure Coast, however, prices have barely budged since the first of the year, remaining at a median of $239,700 in March. (April home sales figures come out next week.)

The number of unsold homes on the market from Boca Raton to Vero Beach has been steadily rising, surging to a record 24,028 homes for sale in March, according to Illustrated Properties Real Estate. That's a 27-month supply at the March sales pace. The same month a year ago, there were 18,178 unsold homes.

Unfortunately, this surge in inventory will be swelled soon by foreclosures, which are reaching record numbers across the nation and locally. "The biggest problem for single-family medium-priced homes is the beginning of this flood of foreclosures," Delray Beach developer Frank McKinney said. "If you're an optimist, it's a buying opportunity."
Not surprisingly, Realtors agree.

"What billionaire said, 'If you want to make money, do the opposite of what everyone else is doing'?" asked Realtor Bob Graeve of Illustrated Properties. "If everyone is selling," he added, "it's time to buy. If everyone is buying, that's the time to sell."

Florida Association of Realtors Article

The FAR article quotes a NAR (National Assoc. of Realtors) article.

Richard Newquist - Live At The Beach.net
NAR: First quarter metro home prices, state sales show stabilizationFlorida’s housing market for 1Q 2007: Sales soft, median price down

ORLANDO, Fla. – May 15, 2007 – In first quarter 2007, Florida’s housing sector continued to mirror the national pattern, with higher inventory levels of homes for sale, median prices edging down and soft sales reflecting a buyer’s market in many areas.

Statewide, sales of single-family existing homes totaled 33,748 during the three-month period, a decrease of 26 percent compared to 45,844 homes sold during the same time a year earlier, according to the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR).

The statewide existing-home median sales price was $237,000 in the first quarter; a year ago, it was $243,500 for a decrease of 3 percent. In 2002, the first-quarter statewide median sales price was $129,600, which reflects an increase of about 82.9 percent over the five-year period. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.

To gain insight into current trends in Florida’s real estate industry, the University of Florida’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies conducts a quarterly survey of industry executives, market research economists, real estate scholars and other experts. The first quarter 2007 survey, released in March, found that a growing number of respondents believe that home prices are staying even with inflation, said Wayne Archer, the center’s director.

“We see that as a benchmark,” he said. “When prices maintain the same level as inflation, then we’re probably in some kind of equilibrium. It indicates the market is stabilizing.”

It appears that residential development may have bottomed out, according to the study. Given the scale of the residential development market, Archer noted this would be good news for all real estate markets and for Florida in general.

Continuing low mortgage rates remain another positive influence on the housing sector. According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.22 percent in first quarter 2007; one year earlier, it averaged 6.24 percent.

The latest industry outlook from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) predicts that stricter lending standards and a decline in subprime mortgage originations will have an impact on existing home sales this year. “Home buyers today are purchasing for the long term, generally with a realistic expectation of modest gains over time,” says NAR Senior Economist Lawrence Yun. “We see this as a soft landing with home sales rising gradually in the second half of the year and prices recovering a bit later.”

Looking to Florida’s existing condominium market, sales of existing condos also decreased during the quarter, with a total of 10,537 condos sold statewide compared to 15,031 in first quarter 2006 for a 30 percent decline, according to FAR. The statewide median sales price for condos remained flat at $210,800 for the three-month period; a year ago, it was $209,900.

Among the state’s larger markets, the Jacksonville metropolitan statistical area (MSA) reported 3,373 existing homes sold for the quarter, a decrease of 14 percent compared to the 3,903 homes sold a year earlier. The market’s existing-home median sales price increased 1 percent to $199,500; a year earlier, it was $197,100. A total of 385 existing condos sold in the market over the three-month period, down 23 percent from first quarter 2006, while the existing-condo median price decreased 7 percent to $152,300.

The Gainesville MSA, one of the smaller markets in the state, reported that 562 homes changed hands in the first quarter, down 23 percent compared to 729 homes sold a year earlier. Over the same period, the market’s existing-home median home price rose 3 percent to $217,100; a year earlier, it was $211,100. A total of 143 existing condos sold in the Gainesville area during the first quarter, a decrease of 40 percent from the previous year, while the existing-condo median price rose 8 percent to $166,800.

© 2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Related Topics: Home sales
Questions, comments or suggestions on this article? Have a news tip? Send a letter to the editor to: Newseditor@floridarealtors.org.

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© Copyright 2007 Florida Association of Realtors®

Florida Real Estate. . .Fact or Fiction

Wadda you mean, "fact or fiction"?

Is it a real deal or not? Is it a good investment or is the insurance fiasco going to squash the whole market? Call Richard Newquist, Realtor, Coral Shores Realty, for more information. 904-422-5091.

Hurricanes, insurance problems, over speculation, bad drivers, Florida has it all...everything that quashes a real estate deal, that is! Beachfront properties go begging. "Just one block to the beach" properties go begging. Vacation rental investments go begging.

It's all good for investors (the real ones) who buy properties, ad value and dispose of the property through sale or lease. Lower prices are just what the doctor ordered.

If you are a FSBO in Florida and want to sell your own home, call me for advertising and marketing insight. Also, find out about our $99 websites specifically tailored to YOUR property!

Also, visit www.fsbowiz.blogspot.com

April to May Continues to Deteriorate

Richard Newquist, Realtor
Jacksonville Beach, FL
http://www.liveatthebeach.net

Both the national and the Florida real estate markets continue to deterioriate, substantially, from April to May, 2007. These stats. come from the National Association of Realtors and are generally accepted as being representative of the actual market conditions.

Where the national existing home sales showed an increase in April of +3.9% over a year ago, our contacts in other states didn't seem to bear that out. The stats. for existing home sales for May show a huge negative turn around.... +3.9% for April to - 8.4% in May! That is a net change of 12.4% downhill.

Richard Newquist, Jacksonville's most sought after real estate agent thinks the stats have not really changed much over the course of the last year and no improvement in the market is being observed. Lereah, Chief Economist for NAR predicted the beginnings of a turn around in early 2007 but that doesn't seem to be materializing.

In Florida, the stats are still bad and aren't improving. The volume in Florida is WAaaaaaaay off but the prices have only declined a few percentage points, according to the stats. The problem is the "incentives" that are being offered by sellers that don't show up in the closing price.

A lot of people want to sell their own homes to save the commission. "YES YOU CAN" but do it intelligently and professionally. Go to www.fsbomover.com to get information on a website specific to YOUR property. A website will help move your property 3X's faster than not having one. Put the URL on your yard sign, put it on your flyers, put it in your classified ads and expand the value without increasing the cost.

Housing Market Indicators:

Florida existing home sales:
April -23% May -28%

Florida existing condo sales:
April -28% May -32%

National existing home sales:
April + 3.9% May -8.4%

Housing Stats as of May 11th

Richard Newquist - Realtor
http://www.liveatthebeach.net

National Association of Realtors
Florida Association of Realtors
Housing Market Indicators:
Florida existing home sales:
-28%
Florida existing condo sales:
-32%
Florida existing home median price:
$236,000
Florida existing condo median price:
$208,800
Florida consumer confidence:
86
National existing home sales:
-8.4%
National existing home median price
$217,000
National (Freddie Mac) mortgage rate
6.16%